These will make a big difference in the offensive, punching through Putin’s decrepit machinery. Similarly, the German Leopard 2 tanks have begun to arrive. The British Challenger 2 tanks and their Ukrainian crews have begun to arrive in Ukraine, and more crew are still being trained in the UK. Kyiv in turn has used this extended period on the defensive by continuing to train its reserve troops for this year’s offensives and shaping the battleground to its advantage fixing Russian troops in place, conducting limited counter-attacks and staging delaying actions.įinally, of course, there is the wait for the promised and much-needed Western military kit. This is highly disruptive for manoeuvres, as battle tanks and personnel carriers get bogged down.
Unfavourable weather conditions have also played a role, with the spring weather prolonging the period of muddy ground. The battle for Bakhmut has been the obvious highlight of this effort rather than push forward, Kyiv has held its lines and let Russia dash itself on its defences. To start with, the poorly executed Russian offensive gave Ukraine an opportunity to exploit the weaknesses of their adversary, grinding down attacks and bleeding forces dry.
The timelines are incredibly tight, and the much-anticipated “spring offensive” has now been repeatedly delayed. This is a genuine tipping point for the war. If they fail, then American political and military support may begin to wither – and with it, Ukraine’s future as a sovereign nation. If the Ukrainian Armed Forces can retake significant ground, then the momentum may finally swing fully behind the liberation of their territory.
Kyiv is now preparing for one of the most consequential military counter-offensives since the Battle of the Bulge.
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